CFAs: Integrated Scenarios and Predictive Models for a Nature-Positive Transition

This call provides a total funding envelope of €10,000,000, with an indicative contribution of around €5,000,000 per project, to support selected research and innovation actions.

The focus areas of this call include the advancement of integrated scenario frameworks that explore how ecosystems respond to multiple plausible futures shaped by human-induced pressures such as climate change, pollution, socio-economic transitions, and policy interventions, the development of comprehensive predictive ecosystem models across terrestrial, freshwater, and marine systems, strengthened interdisciplinary collaboration across bio-physical sciences, socio-economic fields, and humanities, and the creation of robust model intercomparison and cross-scale scenario-building frameworks that improve transparency, consistency, and usability for policy, business, and international assessments.

The objective of this initiative is to advance scientific understanding of ecosystem responses under diverse future conditions and to support the design of long-term, equitable, and nature-positive policies aligned with the European Green Deal, the EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030, the EU Nature Restoration Regulation, the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, and the Sustainable Development Goals. The call also contributes to international assessment frameworks such as IPBES and the IPCC.

Projects funded under this topic are expected to develop components of a European integrated prediction and scenario framework capable of simulating how natural ecosystems respond to complex interactions between environmental and socio-economic drivers. This includes linking ecosystem functions with key economic sectors such as agriculture and fisheries, assessing resilience and tipping points under multiple plausible futures, and capturing dynamic feedback loops between ecological and human systems. Proposals must also incorporate long-term monitoring data across biodiversity, land use, climate, and socio-economic variables, while explicitly quantifying uncertainty in model projections.

A key requirement is that proposals develop and test modelling approaches across at least two European biogeographic regions, ensuring relevance across different ecosystem types and spatial scales. Applicants are expected to assess and, where appropriate, adapt the IPBES Nature Futures Framework for European application, align with international modelling efforts, and address knowledge gaps identified in global biodiversity assessments. The use of remote sensing data is encouraged to support scalability and enable model intercomparison across regions.

The call strongly emphasises stakeholder engagement and co-creation of scenario narratives involving public authorities, economic sectors, and civil society. Proposals should explicitly integrate equity and justice considerations, including distributional impacts across biodiversity, climate, food, water, health, energy, and economic systems. Communication of results through accessible tools such as interactive simulation platforms is also encouraged to ensure broader public understanding and policy relevance.

Projects should build synergies with existing EU-funded initiatives and allocate appropriate resources for collaboration with the European Commission’s Knowledge Centre for Biodiversity (KCBD) and its Science Service. The call is also part of a coordination effort between the European Space Agency and the European Commission under Earth System Science initiatives, and successful proposals are expected to engage with projects under ESA’s FutureEO programme.

Eligibility is open to any legal entity, including those established in non-associated third countries or international organisations, provided they comply with Horizon Europe conditions. Applicants must register in the Participant Register and obtain a Participant Identification Code (PIC) before grant agreement preparation.

For more information, visit EC.